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[0:00] Ken Davenport: Hey everybody, Ken Davenport here with the Producer's Perspective Podcast episode number 247.

[0:05] Ken Davenport: You know, way back in May of 2020, I talked about what I believed the Broadway’s recovery would look like, grafted out and everything.

[0:16] Ken Davenport: Well, that's when I thought the shutdown would only be a few months.

[0:19] Ken Davenport: Things have changed.

[0:20] Ken Davenport: I've got a new outlook on what Broadway’s's recovery will look like, and it's coming up next.

[0:28] Ken Davenport: I wanna be a producer with a hit show on Broadway’s.

[0:35] Ken Davenport: You're listening to the Producers Perspective Podcast with your host, Tony Award winner, Ken Davenport.

[0:45] Ken Davenport: Things change mighty fast in a pandemic.

[0:48] Ken Davenport: Things have certainly changed since May of 2020 when I first postulated what I thought Broadway’s's recovery from an economic perspective will look like.

[0:56] Ken Davenport: And frankly, things have changed since yesterday.

[0:59] Ken Davenport: It's hard to keep up, but we're going to try.

[1:01] Ken Davenport: I'm revising some predictions of what I believe Broadway’s recovery, Broadway’s's recovery will look like, and I wanted to share them with you today.

[1:10] Ken Davenport: So look, none of us could have imagined that a year and a half we'd have only two shows running.

[1:17] Ken Davenport: We all thought we'd be back up and running a few weeks or a few months after that March 12th shutdown.

[1:23] Ken Davenport: Uh, but here we are.

[1:25] Ken Davenport: Here we are, and things have changed.

[1:27] Ken Davenport: So if you'll remember last May, in case you missed uh me talking about this then, I predicted what I referred to as a fishing hook recovery.

[1:38] Ken Davenport: You know, economists will talk about a V-shaped recovery or a U-shaped recovery out of recessions.

[1:43] Ken Davenport: You know, I'm a little dramatic.

[1:45] Ken Davenport: So I came up with my own moniker called the fishing hook recovery, uh, which was a little bit of a convoluted form of a graphic that basically looked like a bucket with a straight line sticking out of the end.

[2:02] Ken Davenport: What I was expecting, of course, we were doing uh unbelievable business, and then that business just ended, right?

[2:08] Ken Davenport: Unlike other forms of recessions, it didn't, we didn't recede, we just stopped, right?

[2:14] Ken Davenport: We went from 60 to zero in no time, and we've sat at zero for a year and a half.

[2:20] Ken Davenport: So, look, what is going to happen now is that we are not gonna turn the lights on for all the shows at once, right?

[2:29] Ken Davenport: We thought originally that maybe three weeks after we just turn the lights back on and 40 theaters would be lit again, and all those Broadway’s shows would be up and running, and we go straight back up in the air.

[2:38] Ken Davenport: That's not gonna happen.

[2:39] Ken Davenport: We are going to stagger back.

[2:41] Ken Davenport: We have two shows running as of me recording this podcast right now.

[2:45] Ken Davenport: We have Bruce Springsteen, we have the very powerful play Passover, which I urge you all to go check out.

[2:51] Ken Davenport: And then slowly but surely we have Hades Town coming, we have Phantom coming.

[2:56] Ken Davenport: We are going to slowly add to the weekly grosses.

[3:00] Ken Davenport: We are going to add to those numbers and steadily incline, right?

[3:05] Ken Davenport: We're gonna go back.

[3:06] Ken Davenport: And I believe that incline, I am predicting that incline is going to be a steep incline because I believe there's a lot of pent-up demand.

[3:14] Ken Davenport: I believe people are going to rush back to the theater, especially because we have mandated masks and vaccines, and those people are going to want to see theater.

[3:24] Ken Davenport: Our audiences are gonna want to see theater.

[3:26] Ken Davenport: I know this, I hear this anecdotally.

[3:28] Ken Davenport: I played golf with someone last week.

[3:30] Ken Davenport: They said, man oh man, my wife and I have made a commitment to see more theater now than ever before.

[3:36] Ken Davenport: We have missed it so much.

[3:39] Ken Davenport: I then told him uh where he could buy tickets and watched him do it on his phone, by the way.

[3:44] Ken Davenport: So, and look, if you check some of the ticket sales for some of the shows out there, shows are selling.

[3:44] Ken Davenport: Shows are selling.

[3:51] Ken Davenport: We're gonna see a steep incline.

[3:53] Ken Davenport: I I firmly believe this because of the pent-up demand, and hopefully, by the time more and more shows are running, October, November, December, the Delta variant will be held back.

[4:06] Ken Davenport: I won't say squashed just yet.

[4:08] Ken Davenport: It's gonna take a little bit of a longer time than that.

[4:10] Ken Davenport: But hopefully it will be quieted as long as people out there get their vaccines, get their vaccines, get their vaccines.

[4:17] Ken Davenport: Yes, uh, please encourage people to get vaccinated and get vaccinated if you yourself if you have not done that yet.

[4:23] Ken Davenport: Now, here's where I'm really revising my prediction is that I thought we would just go straight up from there originally, because I thought the the time it would take to get the shows back up and running again would be short-lived.

[4:35] Ken Davenport: It's gonna be longer now, it has been longer.

[4:38] Ken Davenport: And unfortunately, we're gonna get into that time of year, January, February, which is never a good time for the theater, right?

[4:45] Ken Davenport: January, February was always a difficult time.

[4:47] Ken Davenport: A lot of shows do close during that period, and we're facing that right after we get back up and running again.

[4:55] Ken Davenport: And the fact of the matter is that a lot of New Yorkers who will come out and support us in November, October, November, December, many of them go away during January, February.

[5:06] Ken Davenport: So even if they want to support, they just may not be here, especially this year, as people are still trying to spend time away during the pandemic.

[5:15] Ken Davenport: So we're gonna have, I believe, fewer New Yorkers here than before.

[5:19] Ken Davenport: And of course, the big variable that none of us knew back when we only thought this would be a short shutdown is that tourism is just not back yet.

[5:27] Ken Davenport: And tourism is never strong in January and February, but it is existent, right?

[5:35] Ken Davenport: There is some tourist activity, and that's gonna be much more subdued this year.

[5:40] Ken Davenport: We do have MLK weekend in January.

[5:43] Ken Davenport: Like those usually bring more numbers.

[5:45] Ken Davenport: Those numbers are gonna be subdued.

[5:47] Ken Davenport: And certainly what's gonna be even more subdued than domestic tourism is international tourism will still be down significantly.

[5:56] Ken Davenport: So unfortunately, what I'm predicting now is we're gonna see this steep incline, but then January and February, we're gonna see a little bit of a pullback.

[6:04] Ken Davenport: It's gonna be a pretty big dip, right?

[6:07] Ken Davenport: If you go onto my blog, you can actually see a new graphic I've doodled onto a post-it of what I believe this recovery is gonna look like.

[6:15] Ken Davenport: We're gonna see a big dip, and unfortunately, we may see some shows close.

[6:15] Ken Davenport: We may see some shows close.

[6:21] Ken Davenport: We always see shows close in January.

[6:24] Ken Davenport: It's always a natural time when shows say, okay, now's the time to go because I don't have the advance built up.

[6:30] Ken Davenport: We just may see some of the uh some shows close that we had hoped would make it all the way through, right?

[6:38] Ken Davenport: But without those domestic or international tourists, it's just gonna be hard to keep those shows going.

[6:44] Ken Davenport: In fact, I've got some numbers for you.

[6:46] Ken Davenport: Here's a prediction from New York City and Company, the company that looks after the tourist trade in New York City.

[6:52] Ken Davenport: Uh New York attracted a record 66.6 million tourists last year, 2019, and was expected to break that record again in 2020, right?

[7:05] Ken Davenport: The virus upended those expectations, direct quote.

[7:09] Ken Davenport: And the city may reach only a third of last year's total.

[7:09] Ken Davenport: A third.

[7:15] Ken Davenport: So now, Ken again, off the quote, of course, this is gonna have an impact on the audiences that we see, especially during the usually depressed times of January and February.

[7:28] Ken Davenport: So we again may see a few more shows close than we would like.

[7:32] Ken Davenport: Now, the bright spot is that once the spring comes and we are further away from the Delta variant and we are closer to herd immunity, and we have quelled the Delta variant and anything else that pops up, knock some wood, await as you knock something.

[7:48] Ken Davenport: I do expect the theater then to take a very very gradual upswing into the summer of 2022, which I expect to be absolutely gangbusters.

[8:04] Ken Davenport: So, yes, a revised prediction, no question, because hey, that first prediction was May of 2020.

[8:10] Ken Davenport: Who the heck knew what was going on then?

[8:14] Ken Davenport: We know more now.

[8:16] Ken Davenport: This is the prediction as of today.

[8:18] Ken Davenport: I reserve the right to change it again, but I'm pretty confident that this is what we're gonna look like.

[8:22] Ken Davenport: Broadway is going to be back, it's gonna take a little bit longer than we would have liked, just like the shutdown was a little bit longer than we would have liked, but I am predicting we're gonna get back to where we were before and far beyond because there is nothing like the live theater going experience.

[8:40] Ken Davenport: You can help Broadway’s get back and theaters in your community get back, just get vaccinated and buy a ticket to see a show.

[8:48] Ken Davenport: And I'll see you at the theater.

[9:01] Ken Davenport: Thanks again for listening to the Producer's Perspective podcast.

[9:04] Ken Davenport: If you found this episode informative, educational, inspirational, or just entertaining, do me a favor and share this episode with another theater maker or two in your life.

[9:16] Ken Davenport: My mission is to amplify the conversation about theater because if we get more people talking about it, we'll get more people making it, we'll get more people seeing it.

[9:26] Ken Davenport: It will be great for the industry as a whole.

[9:28] Ken Davenport: If you want more of my daily perspectives on theater and Broadway’s, check out my blog at the ProducersPerspective.com or check out my social media accounts at Ken Davenport B Way on Instagram and at Ken Davenport on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

[9:43] Ken Davenport: We'll see you for the next episode.